March 4, 2026, Flood Outlook Statement

Wednesday, March 4th, 2026 to Wednesday, March 11th, 2026 

Saugeen Conservation advises that considerable snowmelt and runoff to local watercourses is expected. Conditions will be extremely hazardous and flooding is possible. 

ALL SAUGEEN WATERSHED MUNICIPALITIES – Municipality of Arran-Elderslie, Municipality of Brockton, Township of Chatsworth, Municipality of Grey Highlands, Town of Hanover, Township of Howick, Municipality of Morris-Turnberry, Municipality of South Bruce, Township of Huron-Kinloss, Municipality of Kincardine, Town of Minto, Township of Wellington-North, Town of Saugeen Shores, Township of Southgate, Municipality of West Grey.  

Local forecasts indicate a multi-day warming period, beginning today (Wednesday, March 4th) and continuing through to Wednesday, March 11th, 2026. Daytime highs are expected to range between 7°C and 15°C during this period, with some nights remaining above 0°C. Forecasts also advise that 10-20 mm of rain is possible overnight on Friday, March 6th, with the possibility of more rain early to mid-next week.  

Similar to last spring, an above-average snowpack with high water content (70 to 160 mm of water equivalent) is present throughout the entire watershed. Substantial melting is expected, which will contribute large volumes of runoff to local watercourses. While river ice has begun to melt and thin, the potential for ice jams remains possible in historically prone areas. 

Flooding of traditional low-lying areas is expected. More substantial flooding may be possible depending on actual temperature patterns and rainfall amounts. Municipal and County staff are encouraged to clear culverts, storm drains, and drainage pathways where possible, and to monitor problem areas and prepare to close low-lying roads. 

Residents are encouraged to secure property around watercourses and remain alert to changing river conditions. The public is also reminded to exercise extreme caution near all watercourses. Stream flows are expected to become strong and hazardous, and riverbanks may be unstable due to melting snow. Ice conditions also remain unpredictable and should be considered unsafe. 

Saugeen Conservation staff will be closely monitoring watershed conditions. This message will remain in effect until Wednesday, March 11th at 9:30 a.m. unless updated otherwise. 

To report flooding in your area, visit our website: www.saugeenconservation.ca/reportflood  

For more information: 
Jody Duncan, Flood Forecasting and Warning Coordinator 
(519) 369-8247 | floodcoordinator@svca.on.ca 

Website: www.saugeenconservation.ca  

To view watershed conditions: Collaborative Water Data Viewer