Back to SearchWatershed Conditions Statement: Flood Outlook
Tuesday, January 13th, 2026 to Wednesday, January 21st, 2026
Saugeen Conservation advises that a Flood Outlook has been issued for the Municipality of West Grey due to the potential for frazil ice production in the Main Saugeen River. The Watershed Condition Statement – Water Safety issued previously remains in place for all other municipalities and will expire on Wednesday, January 14th at 9:00 am.
Flood Outlook – Municipality of West Grey
Water Safety Statement – Municipality of Arran-Elderslie, Municipality of Brockton, Township of Chatsworth, Municipality of Grey Highlands, Town of Hanover, Township of Howick, Municipality of Morris-Turnberry, Municipality of South Bruce, Township of Huron-Kinloss, Municipality of Kincardine, Town of Minto, Township of Wellington-North, Town of Saugeen Shores, Township of Southgate
This statement has been issued due to the potential for frazil ice formation in the Main Saugeen River upstream of Durham, driven by a prolonged forecast of cold temperatures and high streamflows caused by recent rainfall and snowmelt.
Key forecast details:
- Cold air temperatures will persist for the next 7 days. With the windchill factor, daytime highs will be between -5°C and -20°C and nighttime lows will range from -15°C to -27°C. Exposure of the water to cold air temperatures can trigger the formation of frazil ice.
- High, fast-moving flows on the Main Saugeen River from Priceville to Durham currently lack ice cover, increasing the risk of frazil ice formation, which can rapidly block water flow and cause flooding upstream of ice jams.
Saugeen Conservation and Municipality of West Grey staff are working together to prioritize public safety, with Saugeen Conservation actively communicating flood forecasting information to municipal staff. As part of these efforts, municipal staff are encouraged to remain prepared to respond should conditions require action.
Saugeen Conservation staff will be closely monitoring the situation and will provide updates as needed. This statement remains in effect until Wednesday, January 21st, 2026 at 4:30 pm unless otherwise updated.
To report flooding: www.saugeenconservation.ca/reportflood
For more information:
Jody Duncan, Flood Forecasting and Warning Coordinator
Email: floodcoordinator@svca.on.ca | Cell: 519-369-8247
Media inquiries:
Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority
Email: media@svca.on.ca | Cell: 519-369-4295
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