February 18, 2026 - Flood Outlook Statement

Watershed Conditions Statement: Flood Outlook

Wednesday, February 18th, 2026 to Monday, February 23rd, 2026

Saugeen Conservation advises that mild temperatures and freezing rain can create the potential for flooding near water bodies throughout the Saugeen watershed.

ALL SAUGEEN WATERSHED MUNICIPALITIES – Municipality of Arran-Elderslie, Municipality of Brockton, Township of Chatsworth, Municipality of Grey Highlands, Town of Hanover, Township of Howick, Municipality of Morris-Turnberry, Municipality of South Bruce, Township of Huron-Kinloss, Municipality of Kincardine, Town of Minto, Township of Wellington-North, Town of Saugeen Shores, Township of Southgate, Municipality of West Grey.

Mild temperatures over the past several days have caused the snowpack to become dense, reducing its ability to absorb more water. Prolonged above freezing temperatures may result in some snowmelt.

A Freezing Rain Warning issued by Environment Canada and Climate Change advises that freezing rain is forecast in the area today (February 18th) with 5 to 10 mm of ice buildup expected. Temperatures are likely to remain slightly above freezing through Friday, February 20th; significant runoff is not expected.

With substantial river ice cover in the watershed, the primary concern over the next several days will be the weakening of river ice and potential for ice movement and jamming. Rising water levels may cause river ice to break up and move, creating the potential for ice jams to occur which can cause water levels to rise quickly, resulting in localized flooding.

While ice jams can form anywhere, municipal staff are advised to monitor locations of historic ice jamming and higher risk locations such as bridge crossings, channel constrictions, areas of slow-moving water and sharp river bends. Municipal staff are also encouraged to monitor drainage systems, culverts, and low-lying areas and roads for flooding.

Water levels may rise quickly, and fast-moving water, unsafe ice, and slippery banks could make conditions dangerous near any river, stream, or shoreline. The public is reminded to stay away from all watercourses and structures such as bridges, culverts, and dams.

Saugeen Conservation staff will be closely monitoring watershed conditions. This message will remain in effect until Monday, February 23rd at 9:00 a.m. unless updated otherwise.

To report flooding in your area, visit our website: www.saugeenconservation.ca/reportflood 

For more information:
Jody Duncan
Flood Forecasting and Warning Coordinator
(519)369-8247 | floodcoordinator@svca.on.ca