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December 22, 2022: Flood Outlook Statements Issued
Watershed Conditions Statement: Flood Outlook
Saugeen Conservation advises that an intense, widespread winter storm is forecast to hit Ontario starting on Thursday. The system is expected to bring 10 to 15mm of rain on Thursday before transitioning to snow as a cold-front moves through the region. Forecasts suggest snowfall amounts of 60 to 80cm between Friday and Sunday evening. At this time, sustained winds of 60 to 70km/hr are expected, with gusts as high as 110km/hr. These intense winds are expected to continue through Saturday, becoming lighter on Sunday as the system makes its way through the province.
While significant flooding is not expected, rivers could reach or exceed bankfull conditions, with minor flooding in traditional low-lying areas. More extensive flooding is possible depending on the rain/snow transition from the approaching cold-front. Additionally, rapidly changing temperatures pose a risk of frazil ice development which could block waterways. Municipal and County staff should monitor problem areas and prepare to close low-lying roads. Residents are reminded to stay away from all watercourses. Cold water, gusty winds, and slippery and unstable stream banks will create hazardous conditions near all waterways.
Shoreline Conditions Statement: Flood Outlook
Saugeen Conservation advises that a storm warning has been issued by Environment Canada for the Lake Huron shoreline. Winds today will be from the southeast at 35km/hr, before transitioning to the west on Friday, where they will increase to 85 to 95km/hr, gusting to 110km/hr. Waves are expected to be between 2 to 3m Friday morning, increasing to 3 to 5m by noon on Friday, before building to 4 to 6m Friday evening and overnight into Saturday. There is also the risk of severe freezing spray throughout Friday and Saturday.
While significant shoreline flooding is not anticipated, wave uprush, shoreline erosion and flooding of low lying areas are possible.Residents and Municipal officials are reminded to stay back from the Lake Huron Shoreline at this time. Municipal staff are recommended to monitor problem areas for the duration of this message.
Saugeen Conservation staff will be closely monitoring the situation and will provide an update if conditions change. This message will remain in place until Monday December 26, 2022 at 12:00PM.
For more information, please contact:
James Pearson
Flood Forecasting and Warning Coordinator
(519) 369-8247
j.pearson@svca.on.ca
Flood Outlook: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
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